National Health Expenditure Projections, 2016–25: Price Increases, Aging Push Sector To 20 Percent Of Economy

By Sean P. Keehan and colleagues at the CMS Office of the Actuary
Health Affairs, February 15, 2017


Under current law, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent for 2016–25 and represent 19.9 percent of gross domestic product by 2025. For 2016, national health expenditure growth is anticipated to have slowed 1.1 percentage points to 4.8 percent, as a result of slower Medicaid and prescription drug spending growth. For the rest of the projection period, faster projected growth in medical prices is partly offset by slower projected growth in the use and intensity of medical goods and services, relative to that observed in 2014–16 associated with the Affordable Care Act coverage expansions. The insured share of the population is projected to increase from 90.9 percent in 2015 to 91.5 percent by 2025.…

Over this decade, with no further changes in our health care financing system, national health expenditures are expected to increase to one-fifth of our GDP. Unfortunately, our current health care financing system remains incapable of containing health care costs.

Perhaps more alarming is that this decade will reduce the numbers of uninsured by only six-tenths of one percent. Eight and one-half percent of the population will remain uninsured in 2025. Without change, our system will continue to fail to ensure that health care is a right for all.

On a personal note, our daughter-in-law is in Taiwan – her native country – where today she had major surgery for cancer. All went well.

Our son just sent a photo of the mission statement that is posted on the wall of her post-op room.

It begins,

Objective: To promote the basic human right of health

If only President Trump and his colleagues in the District of Columbia truly supported that concept and would act upon it…