Health Affairs
February 27 2002
by Mary A. Laschober, Michelle Kitchman, Patricia Neuman, and Allison A. Strabic
“By fall 1999, 38 percent of beneficiaries lacked drug coverage, based on point-in-time estimates. This is much higher than previous estimates that measured beneficiaries’ drug coverage at any time during the calendar year. Many of Medicare’s most vulnerable beneficiaries-rural (50 percent), near-poor (44 percent), and oldest old (45 percent)-were most likely to lack drug coverage in the fall of 1999.”
“With increasingly unaffordable premiums, the Medigap market is unlikely to absorb the recent and serious declines in Medicare HMO availability. It is also improbable that employer retiree plans or Medicaid will pick up the slack. Numerous studies show trends in declining retiree coverage. Although the MCBS data presented in this paper suggest that employer-sponsored coverage was relatively stable during 1996-1999, declines in retiree coverage are expected in the future. Medicaid will likely remain a critical source of supplemental coverage for the lowest-income beneficiaries but is unlikely to help middle- and higher-income beneficiaries, who may lose coverage from other sources.”
“This uncertainty places even greater pressure on policymakers to add a prescription drug benefit to Medicare.”