At Stake in the Shutdown Fight: Obamacare Prices That Could Rise by Thousands of Dollars, The New York Times, Oct. 1, 2025, by Margot Sanger-Katz & Alicia Parlapiano
Democrats say they will not vote to end the government shutdown unless Congress extends extra Obamacare subsidies that are set to expire next year. Republican leaders have said the subsidies shouldn’t be a part of legislation to reopen the government, though several individual lawmakers are open to the idea.
Should the extra subsidies expire, how much more will people with Obamacare plans pay?
The subsidies, first passed in 2021 and extended in 2022, make health insurance less expensive for nearly all those who buy their own coverage. Since the subsidies’ creation, enrollment in Obamacare markets has more than doubled.
Extending the subsidies would cost the federal government … about $350 billion over the next decade, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. But, without them, many Americans will face much higher costs before the midterm elections next fall — in some cases, increases of more than a thousand dollars per month.
7 in 10 Marketplace Enrollees Say They Could Not Afford Coverage if Their Premiums Doubled; 4 in 10 Say They Would Expect to Be Uninsured
More than three-quarters (78%) of the public say they want Congress to extend the enhanced tax credits available to people with low and moderate incomes to make the health coverage purchased through the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplace more affordable, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds. That’s more than three times the share (22%) who say they want Congress to let the tax credits expire.
Comment:
By Jim Kahn, M.D., M.P.H.
For the last two weeks, my focus has been on a major medical issue facing my wife, so HJM has paused. We restart with this post on a health insurance issue currently central to US national politics, and will aim to maintain a steady flow moving forward.
In recent weeks, health insurance has been THE driving issue in the federal government shutdown, which was precipitated by a stalled budget bill for the 2026 fiscal year (started October 1). The sticking point is that the GOP failed to extend COVID-era Affordable Care Act premium subsidies benefiting 13 million individuals. The Democrats in the Senate – whose votes are needed to pass the bill – insist on maintaining the subsidies. They are convinced that highlighting this policy debate will harm the GOP, which appears indifferent to premium jumps of 100% or more. Public opinion polling suggests overwhelming support for extending the subsidies — 92% among Democratic voters and 59% among Republicans. If the budget passes without ACA subsidies, the GOP likely will be blamed for the jump in premiums, which will occur in January 2026 (years before Medicaid cuts passed earlier in 2025), perhaps influencing the 2026 congressional elections.
This is remarkable – a major showdown on federal government subsidies for health insurance. Unlike much of current US politics, it is actually a policy issue: Should the government broadly subsidize health insurance? The message from voters is an adamant “yes.” The GOP seems indifferent; the Dems seem determined.
Is this a pivotal moment where health insurance tips the political scales? It’s too early to say. In the short term, we don’t know who will win the budget bill fight, or what a compromise might look like. And we don’t know how the battle over subsidies will influence the 2026 congressional midterms. Or the 2028 presidential election.
Nonetheless, I’m quite encouraged by the stand that some politicians are taking in favor of broad health insurance, and the public’s extremely supportive reaction.
In an upcoming post, I’ll review how politicians are talking about health insurance. Lots of creative efforts there.
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