Projected Effects of Proposed Cuts in Federal Medicaid Expenditures on Medicaid Enrollment, Uninsurance, Health Care, and Health, Annals of Internal Medicine, June 17, 2025, by Adam Gaffney, David U. Himmelstein, and Steffie Woolhandler
From the Abstract:
… Enactment of the House bill [Medicaid cuts] advanced in May 2025 would increase the number of uninsured persons by 7.6 million and the number of deaths by 16,642 annually …
Policy makers should weigh the likely health and financial harms to patients and providers of reducing Medicaid expenditures against the desirability of tax reductions, which would accrue mostly to wealthy Americans.
Comment:
By Jim Kahn, M.D., M.P.H. and Don McCanne, M.D.
Drs. Gaffney, Himmelstein, and Woolhandler perform a critically important service: they compile and summarize the voluminous evidence that … health insurance provides access to care, improving health and extending life. And taking away health insurance has the opposite effects, harming health and increasing deaths. Of course we know that. But when these health policy leaders quantify what to expect with the specific proposed Medicaid cuts in the Congressional budget reconciliation bill, even the two of us – seasoned health policy analysts – are stunned. The accumulated empirical evidence is persuasive, and the anticipated harms are shocking.
We’ve taken the liberty of creating a summary table with the core findings (see above). Uninsured numbers rise by 6.8 million among adults (plus about 1 million among children), with 8 – 24 thousand added deaths. For more detail, especially about reductions in access to care and general health status, check out the article. And also see the PNHP press release here and NBC coverage here.
As we’ve reported previously, most voters oppose Medicaid cuts, even among Trump supporters. And in the last couple of days, the Senate parliamentarian deemed up to 40% of the cuts unacceptable by Senate budget bill rules. So we have some hope that these efforts to slash Medicaid will wither on the vine.
But they won’t wither on their own. It is essential for opponents to speak up.
Share this information widely. People need to know.
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