By Jack Hadley, Timothy Waidmann, Stephen Zuckerman, Robert A. Berenson
HSR, May 24, 2011
Abstract
Objective. To estimate the relationship between variations in medical spending and health outcomes of the elderly.
Data Sources. 1992–2002 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys.
Study Design. We used instrumental variable (IV) estimation to identify the relationships between alternative measures of elderly Medicare beneficiaries’ medical spending over a 3-year observation period and health status, measured by the Health and Activity Limitation Index (HALex) and survival status at the end of the 3 years. We used the Dartmouth Atlas End-of-Life Expenditure Index defined for hospital referral regions in 1996 as the exogenous identifying variable to construct the IVs for medical spending.
Data Collection/Extraction Methods. The analysis sample includes 17,438 elderly (age >64) beneficiaries who entered the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey in the fall of each year from 1991 to 1999, were not institutionalized at baseline, stayed in fee-for-service Medicare for the entire observation period, and survived for at least 2 years. Measures of baseline health were constructed from information obtained in the fall of the year the person entered the survey, and changes in health were from subsequent interviews over the entire observation period. Medicare and total medical spending were constructed from Medicare claims and self-reports of other spending over the entire observation period.
Principal Findings. IV estimation results in a positive and statistically significant relationship between medical spending and better health: 10 percent greater medical spending over the prior 3 years (mean=U.S.$2,709) is associated with a 1.9 percent larger HALex value (p=.045; range 1.2–2.2 percent depending on medical spending measure) and a 1.5 percent greater survival probability (p=.039; range 1.2–1.7 percent).
Conclusions. On average, greater medical spending is associated with better health status of Medicare beneficiaries, implying that across-the-board reductions in Medicare spending may result in poorer health for some beneficiaries.
Comment:
By Don McCanne, MD
Does spending more on Medicare beneficiaries improve health status? This study concludes that, on average, it does. This is an important finding because current innovative efforts to control Medicare spending are based on the Dartmouth studies that conclude that variations in Medicare spending are not correlated with improved health outcomes.
As the authors of this new study indicate, arbitrary across-the-board reductions could result in poorer health for some beneficiaries. Even arbitrarily reducing spending in high cost areas could have detrimental effects if that higher spending were appropriate for the health status of the local population.
Medicare funds belong to all of us, so there is a responsibility for our stewards to spend those funds wisely and properly. They should pay for beneficial care but not pay for detrimental care nor for outrageously expensive care that is of no benefit. That means that we need more information about the benefits and risks of health care. We need comparative effectiveness studies and, yes, cost effectiveness studies. We need the type of information that is being collected, organized and disseminated by the British National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). We need scientific input free of commercial interests such as that provided by our National Institutes of Health.
It is not only Medicare that needs this input. All care provided by our entire health care delivery system should benefit from this input. Obviously a single payer monopsony would have the ability and power to move funds from detrimental care to beneficial care.
What is Washington doing about this? The Republicans want to give up on government control of Medicare spending and instead shift more of that responsibility to individual Medicare beneficiaries through a defined contribution scheme (premium support). Medicare beneficiaries of limited means and with limited medical sophistication do not make good health care shoppers. The Democrats want to show the Republicans that they can be tough on deficit reduction by including Medicare in the negotiations for budgetary spending cuts – trying to find cuts that inflict the least pain, though painful nevertheless.
Come on. Put away the guillotines, machetes, axes and cleavers. Let’s start spending the right way. Let’s direct our resources to quality care that benefits us all.
About NICE
http://www.nice.org.uk/aboutnice/
About NIH
http://www.nih.gov/about/
About Single Payer
https://pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-resources