National Coalition on Health Care
May 19, 2003
Charting the Cost of Inaction
By Henry Simmons, MD, MPH, FACP and Mark A. Goldberg
What will happen if we do nothing to reform the health care system – nothing to secure health coverage for all Americans, nothing to contain or constrain surging costs, nothing to improve the quality of care?
First, in the absence of reform, health insurance premiums will rise rapidly. When we consider premium trends in real terms – that is, net of increases in the Consumer Price Index – the rate of rise is steeper.
Second, looking ahead, we expect premiums to continue to increase by leaps and bounds. The Coalition projects that the average annual premium for employer-sponsored family health coverage will surge to $14,545 in 2006.
Third, in the absence of reform, the number of uninsured Americans will climb rapidly over the next several years. …we now project that the number of uninsured Americans will reach 51.2 to 53.7 million in 2006.
Fourth, most Americans are apprehensive – and, as we have shown, realistically so – about the future affordability of health care.
Fifth, any reckoning of the potential budgetary impact of reform would be one-sided and incomplete without taking into account the potential effects of effective cost containment. The National Coalition on Health Care has long believed that the savings from cost containment, in a comprehensive package of health care reform, could more than offset the cost if securing universal coverage.
Lastly, and not just for that reason, time makes a difference. …the longer our nation waits to reform its health care system – to achieve universal coverage, contain costs, and improve the quality of care – the more reform will ultimately cost. Reform makes economic sense; delaying reform does not.
http://www.nchc.org/materials/studies/Cost_of_Inaction_Full_Report.pdf
Comment: At the press briefing on the release of this report, virtually all panel members, representing a broad spectrum of interests, agreed that a government solution is required. The video and the transcript of the briefing are available at:
http://www.kaisernetwork.org/health_cast/hcast_index.cfm?display=detail&hc=875