Who will remain uninsured after ACA implemented?

By Rachel Nardin, Leah Zallman, Danny McCormick, Steffie Woolhandler, and David Himmelstein
Health Affairs Blog, June 6, 2013

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) proposed expanding health insurance coverage by: 1) requiring states to offer Medicaid to people with incomes up to 138 percent (133 percent plus a 5 percent income disregard) of the federal poverty level (FPL), with most of this expansion funded federally; and 2) offering subsidies to help those with incomes up to 400 percent FPL purchase private insurance through newly created insurance exchanges.

In June 2012, however, the Supreme Court ruled that states may opt-out of Medicaid expansion. Since then, the governors of 14 states have announced their intention to opt-out, 6 are undecided, 3 are leaning against, and 2 toward the expansion. Opt-outs will likely leave several million more uninsured, but little is known about who is likely to remain uninsured under the ACA.

To estimate the number and characteristics of US residents who will remain uninsured in 2016, we analyzed data from the Census Bureau’s 2012 Current Population Survey, a nationally representative survey of the non-institutionalized US population.

Results

We found that if all currently undecided states opt-in, 29.8 million people will remain uninsured, whereas if all opt-out, the number of uninsured will total 31.0 million, 1.2 million above the opt-in scenario.

For states that are opting out, this choice will lead to a decrease in the number of uninsured of only approximately 17 percent, rather than the approximately 50 percent decrease had they opted in.

Overall, the ACA will minimally alter the demographic composition of the uninsured, regardless of whether undecided states opt-in or out. While Blacks and Hispanics will continue to be overrepresented among the uninsured, the majority will be non-Hispanic, white, low-income, working-age adults, many of them employed. The majority (around 80 percent) of the uninsured will be US citizens, irrespective of states’ acceptance of Medicaid expansion. More than 4.3 million children and nearly 1.0 million veterans will remain uninsured under either scenario.

Implications

The Supreme Court’s decision to allow states to opt-out of Medicaid expansion weakens the ACA’s impact. Because the ACA also reduces funding to safety-net hospitals, states’ refusal to expand Medicaid will likely result in both medical and financial hardship for vulnerable Americans.

Our finding that, following the ACA, only 20 percent of the uninsured will be non-citizens (some of whom reside here legally) runs counter to the common perception that the ACA will cover virtually all legal residents.

The ACA will leave tens of millions uncovered. It will do little to alter racial disparities in coverage. It will also perpetuate disparities in access based on state of residence. The ACA, whatever its merits, will fall well short of its stated goal of providing affordable care for all Americans.

http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2013/06/06/the-uninsured-after-implementation-of-the-affordable-care-act-a-demographic-and-geographic-analysis/

Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Who will remain uninsured after the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented? Roughly 30 million individuals, mostly U.S. citizens, predominately non-Hispanic, white, low-income, working-age adults, with many of them employed. Blacks and Hispanics will continue to be over-represented among the uninsured.

We really do need a single payer national health program that truly covers everyone. Let’s start that process now.