1.0PNHPhttps://pnhp.orgpnhpf3ahttps://pnhp.org/author/pnhpf3a/The importance of predictable unpredictability in long-term financing of Medicare - PNHPrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content"><a href="https://pnhp.org/news/the-importance-of-predictable-unpredictability-in-long-term-financing-of-medicare/">The importance of predictable unpredictability in long-term financing of Medicare</a></blockquote>
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</script><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://pnhp.org/news/the-importance-of-predictable-unpredictability-in-long-term-financing-of-medicare/embed/" width="600" height="338" title="“The importance of predictable unpredictability in long-term financing of Medicare” — PNHP" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe>Predictable Unpredictability: The Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial ForecastingBy Sherry A. Glied, and Abigail ZaylorThe Commonwealth Fund, July 13, 2015Conclusion: Uncertainty Is Inherent in Medicare PolicymakingFor decades we have been hearing from politicians that Medicare is going broke, especially when looking at long-term predictions. Yet as the years roll by, the predictions are continually revised downward in the short term, demonstrating that the doom and gloom of past predictions were not warranted. Yet since long-term forecasting is uncertain, should we be considering major policy changes in Medicare financing? Specifically, should we consider converting Medicare from a social insurance program to a defined-contribution program as politicians are now suggesting?