A Perfect Storm: The Confluence of Forces Affecting Health Care Coverage
National Coalition on Health Care
November 15, 2001
by Joel E. Miller, Director of Policy
"What we are about to witness is a fundamental sea change with the storm's aftermath leaving a significant number of middle-class people uninsured in the foreseeable future. In 2000, health insurance coverage rates decreased for those with household incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. This drop occurred during good economic times. With the economy in a recession, this drop for middle-income people will become even more pronounced."
"A sustained recession over the next few years would very likely exacerbate the decline in employer-based coverage. In the absence of government or private sector intervention, the erosion of employer-based health insurance coverage will be significant. The situation will not self-correct. We need to protect all Americans who are in the storm's path. Steps must be taken to ensure that the number of uninsured Americans does not increase, and instead is reduced over time. We must move towards a health system in which EVERY American has health insurance coverage, health care costs are contained, and quality of care is assured."
"The three major problems plaguing our health system today - mounting costs, the growing number of uninsured, uneven quality of care - are interrelated. Without universal coverage, you cannot assure equity or quality, and in the absence of quality, you cannot contain costs. In addition, without universal coverage you can neither make the system less complex administratively, control costs, stop risk selection and cost-shifting, achieve a level playing field of equitable financing, or create a truly competitive market-based system. It is thus a vicious cycle."
<http://www.nchc.org/APerfectStorm.pdf>http://www.nchc.org/APerfectStorm.pdf
Comment: We have seen the numerous analyses of health care coverage and costs, and we have seen the gloomy predictions. Joel Miller has assembled these current studies and forecasts and has weaved them into a rousing treatise using the appropriate analogy of "A Perfect Storm," with the antecedent calm, the storm, the tidal wave, the sea change, and finally the need for a safe harbor of health insurance. It is a tragic story up to this point, but it has not ended. He shows us that we still can find the safe harbor of universal coverage.