By Sarah Miller, Sean Altekruse, Norman Johnson, and Laura R. Wherry
National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2019

Abstract

We use large-scale federal survey data linked to administrative death records to investigate the relationship between Medicaid enrollment and mortality. Our analysis compares changes in mortality for near-elderly adults in states with and without Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions. We identify adults most likely to benefit using survey information on socioeconomic and citizenship status, and public program participation. We find a 0.13 percentage point decline in annual mortality, a 9.3 percent reduction over the sample mean, associated with Medicaid expansion for this population. The effect is driven by a reduction in disease-related deaths and grows over time. We find no evidence of differential pre-treatment trends in outcomes and no effects among placebo groups.

Interpreting the Estimates

Our estimated change in mortality for our sample translates into sizeable gains in terms of the number of lives saved under Medicaid expansion. Since there are about 3.7 million individuals who meet our sample criteria living in expansion states, our results indicate that approximately 4,800 fewer deaths occurred per year among this population, or roughly 19,200 fewer deaths over the first four years alone. Or, put differently, as there are approximately 3 million individuals meeting this sample criteria in non-expansion states, failure to expand in these states likely resulted in 15,600 additional deaths over this four year period that could have been avoided if the states had opted to expand coverage.

Conclusion

There is robust evidence that Medicaid increases the use of health care, including types of care that are well-established as efficacious such as prescription drugs and screening and early detection of cancers that are responsive to treatment. Given this, it may seem obvious that Medicaid would improve objective measures of health. However, due to data constraints, this relationship has been difficult to demonstrate empirically, leading to widespread skepticism that Medicaid has any salutary effect on health whatsoever. Our paper overcomes documented data challenges by taking advantage of large- scare federal survey data that has been linked to administrative records on mortality. Using these data, we show that the Medicaid expansions substantially reduced mortality rates among those who stood to benefit the most.

https://www.nber.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Health policy can be a matter of life or death.

The Affordable Care Act offered states the opportunity to expand their Medicaid programs that provided care to low-income families, with 100 percent federal funding for the first three years. Several states declined the offer. This NBER report shows that this decision “likely resulted in 15,600 additional deaths” over the first four years of the program. For the states that expanded their Medicaid programs, there were “roughly 19,200 fewer deaths over the first four years.”

The ubiquitous media reports over the years suggest that these decisions to reject Medicaid expansion were based on political ideology, largely without much mention made of the concerns for the health outcomes of the affected populations, except, of course, by the advocates of health care justice. The opponents of public policies for reforming health care object to the use of the term “cruel” to describe these decisions, but that does not seem to be an inappropriate term to describe politicians who use a signature on a document to commit acts of voluntary manslaughter. (Whether this use of “voluntary manslaughter” fits the legal definition seems to have little import when considering that thousands actually died unnecessarily.)

Obviously the importance of health policy decisions extend far beyond the Medicaid program. We know what policies would improve the functioning of our health care system for the benefit of all of us. Optimal policies begin with the financing infrastructure inherent in the design of the single payer model of Medicare for All. The dispute is not over optimal policy. Tragically, the dispute is over politics. Leaving the current financing system in place while merely adding a public option trades away crucial beneficial policies for mere political considerations. On the other side, repealing the Affordable Care Act while promising only a nebulous “something great” as a replacement doesn’t even make an attempt to initiate rational policy discussions.

It is about policy. We can get that right. So what do we do about the politics that is perpetuating this cruelty? If we fail in our politics we will have to put up with more suffering, hardship, and even death. Now that’s cruel.

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By Adam Gaffney, M.D., M.P.H.; Danny McCormick, M.D.; David H. Bor, M.D.; Anna Goldman, M.D.; Steffie Woolhandler, M.D., M.P.H.; David U. Himmelstein, M.D.
Annals of Internal Medicine, July 23, 2019

Abstract

Background: Persons with comprehensive health insurance use more hospital care than those who are uninsured or have high-deductible plans. Consequently, analysts generally assume that expanding coverage will increase society-wide use of inpatient services. However, a limited supply of beds might constrain this growth.

Objective: To determine how the implementations of Medicare and Medicaid (1966) and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) (2014) affected hospital use.

Design: Repeated cross-sectional study.

Setting: Nationally representative surveys.

Participants: Respondents to the National Health Interview Survey (1962 to 1970) and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2008 to 2015).

Measurements: Mean hospital discharges and days were measured, both society-wide and among subgroups defined by income, age, and health status. Changes between preexpansion and postexpansion periods were analyzed using multivariable negative binomial regression.

Results: Overall hospital discharges averaged 12.8 per 100 persons in the 3 years before implementation of Medicare and Medicaid and 12.7 per 100 persons in the 4 years after (adjusted difference, 0.2 discharges [95% CI, −0.1 to 0.4 discharges] per 100 persons; P = 0.26). Hospital days did not change in the first 2 years after implementation but increased later. Effects differed by subpopulation: Adjusted discharges increased by 2.4 (CI, 1.7 to 3.1) per 100 persons among elderly compared with nonelderly persons (P < 0.001) and also increased among those with low incomes compared with high-income populations. For younger and higher-income persons, use decreased. Similarly, after the ACA’s implementation, overall hospital use did not change: Society-wide rates of discharge were 9.4 per 100 persons before the ACA and 9.0 per 100 persons after the ACA (adjusted difference, −0.6 discharges [CI, −1.3 to 0.2 discharges] per 100 persons; P = 0.133), and hospital days were also stable. Trends differed for some subgroups, and rates decreased significantly in unadjusted (but not adjusted) analyses among persons reporting good or better health status and increased nonsignificantly among those in worse health.

Limitation: Data sources relied on participant recall, surveys excluded institutionalized persons, and follow-up after the ACA was limited.

Conclusion: Past coverage expansions were associated with little or no change in society-wide hospital use; increases in groups who gained coverage were offset by reductions among others, suggesting that bed supply limited increases in use. Reducing coverage may merely shift care toward wealthier and healthier persons. Conversely, universal coverage is unlikely to cause a surge in hospital use if growth in hospital capacity is carefully constrained.

Primary Funding Source: None.

https://annals.org…

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Medicare for All unlikely to cause surge in hospital use: Harvard study

Physicians for a National Health Program, July 22, 2019

Analysis finds no increase in hospitalizations after previous large coverage expansions; increased care for newly insured was counterbalanced by small decreases for the healthy and wealthy

As political leaders debate the merits of a future Medicare for All system in the U.S., some analysts predict that implementing universal coverage could cause a sharp, unaffordable increase in hospital use and costs, overwhelming the system. But new research by a team at Harvard Medical School and The City University of New York at Hunter College, published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine, contradicts that assumption, finding that past insurance expansions did not result in a net increase in hospital use. Instead, researchers found a redistribution of care, with increases in hospital care among those newly insured that was offset by small decreases among healthier and wealthier Americans.

The study examined changes in hospital use among those who gained coverage — as well as those whose coverage remained unchanged — after the implementation of Medicare and Medicaid in 1966 and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014. Each of those programs provided new coverage to about 10% of the U.S. population, about the same share expected to gain coverage under a Medicare for All program. The researchers analyzed large national surveys from both the Medicare/Medicaid and ACA eras, and examined hospital use before and after the coverage expansions. Hospital admissions averaged 12.8 for every 100 persons in the three years before Medicare, and 12.7 per 100 in the four years after Medicare’s implementation. Similarly, the hospital admission rate was statistically unchanged in the wake of the ACA, averaging 9.4 admissions per 100 in the six years before the ACA coverage expansion and 9.0 per 100 in the two years’ afterward.

While the study found no overall change in hospital use, the coverage expansions redistributed care. Medicare increased hospital admissions by 3.7 per 100 among the elderly, and by 0.7 per 100 among the poorest one-third of the population, i.e., the groups that gained new coverage. In contrast, hospitalizations fell slightly (about 0.5 per 100) for younger and wealthier individuals. After the ACA, admissions rose by 1.5 per 100 among sicker Americans, but fell by 0.6 per 100 among those in good health. The researchers also found a slight shift of hospital care toward the poor after the ACA.

Dr. Steffie Woolhandler, a study author and distinguished professor of public health at CUNY’s Hunter College who is also on the faculty at Harvard Medical School commented: “The good news is that even big coverage expansions didn’t increase hospitalizations overall, indicating that universal coverage won’t cause a surge in care, and that Medicare for All is affordable. On the other hand, it implies that overturning the ACA would deprive millions of needed care without saving any money.”

The researchers hypothesized that the limited supply of hospital beds constrained the overall use of hospitals when coverage was expanded. They noted that many previous studies, such as the Rand and Oregon Health Insurance Experiments, only examined the effects of greater coverage for the newly insured, not changes among those whose coverage was unchanged, nor the societal effects of expanded coverage.

“We’ve long known that when people get new or better coverage, they use more health care,” said senior author Dr. David Himmelstein, a distinguished professor of public health at CUNY’s Hunter College and lecturer in medicine at Harvard Medical School. “What we didn’t know is what happens to those who were already well-insured, and how this plays out society-wide given the limited number of hospital beds, doctors and nurses,” he stated. “Our data shows that if you sensibly control hospital growth, you can cover everybody without breaking the bank.”

Lead author Dr. Adam Gaffney, instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School and a pulmonary and critical care physician at Cambridge Health Alliance, suggested that the small reductions in hospitalizations among healthier and wealthier individuals are unlikely to be harmful. “We know that the well-insured often receive unnecessary hospitalizations,” said Dr. Gaffney. “While defibrillator implants and coronary artery stents can be lifesaving, thousands of patients each year get these and other procedures even when they offer no benefit,” he added, pointing to an Institute of Medicine study that found that nearly one-third of medical spending is wasted. “The fact that coverage expansions shift hospital care to those who need it, and reduce care for groups currently getting excessive and possibly harmful interventions, means that universal coverage could help everyone,” he stated.

Physicians for a National Health Program is a nonprofit research and education organization whose more than 23,000 members support single-payer national health insurance. PNHP had no role in funding or otherwise supporting the study described above.

https://www.eurekalert.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

It is often assumed that expanding health care coverage to the uninsured and underinsured will unleash pent-up demand for inpatient hospital services. This important study shows that two periods in our history that expanded coverage by an amount that would be comparable to implementation of a single payer Medicare for All program – Medicare and Medicaid in 1966 and the Affordable Care Act in 2014 – actually may have improved allocation of our hospital resources. There was no surge in occupation of hospital beds, but use increased for older and lower-income populations (groups noted for often having greater health care needs) while decreasing for younger and higher-income persons (generally healthier populations).

System capacity is important. Excess capacity can result in over-provision of services of little value whereas deficient capacity can impair access to essential services. Two features of the single payer model can address these problems: 1) Regional planning and separate budgeting of capital improvements can establish optimal levels of capacity, taking surge capacity into consideration, and 2) Global budgeting of hospitals, much as fire departments are budgeted, can provide assurance that adequate funds are available to meet the needs, with contingency funds for crises, while not wasting funds on excess administrative services or on unnecessary profits.

We can dismiss alarmist comments such as that of Rep. John Delaney who said that, under Medicare rates, “Every single hospital administrator said they would close.” That’s ridiculous. Under single payer Medicare for All, the money will be there; it will be collected equitably and distributed equitably, and all of us will have the health care that we need. Bringing everyone under the umbrella will not place undue stress on the system providing we choose stewards for the system who know how to size the umbrella properly.

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By Marshall Allen
ProPublica, July 19, 2019

Health insurers are regarded as fierce defenders of health care dollars. But the case of David Williams shows one reason America’s health care costs continue to rise. The personal trainer spent years posing as a doctor and billing the nation’s top insurers, making off with millions.

There are a host of reasons health care costs are out-of-control and routinely top American’s list of financial worries, from unnecessary treatment and high prices to waste and fraud. Most people assume their insurance companies are tightly controlling their health care dollars. Insurers themselves boast of this on their websites.

In 2017, private insurance spending hit $1.2 trillion, according to the federal government, yet no one tracks how much is lost to fraud. Some investigators and health care experts estimate that fraud eats up 10% of all health care spending, and they know schemes abound.

Williams’ case highlights an unsettling reality about the nation’s health insurance system: It is surprisingly easy for fraudsters to gain entry, and it is shockingly difficult to convince insurance companies to stop them.

Williams’ spree also lays bare the financial incentives that drive the system: Rising health care costs boost insurers’ profits. Policing criminals eats away at them. Ultimately, losses are passed on to their clients through higher premiums and out-of-pocket fees or reduced coverage.

Insurance companies “are more focused on their bottom line than ferreting out bad actors,” said Michael Elliott, former lead attorney for the Medicare Fraud Strike Force in North Texas.

(This article provides details on the extensive acts of insurance fraud committed by David Williams for which he was eventually convicted, but. more importantly, it shows the lack of diligent responsiveness on the part of insurers in spite of repeated notifications of the extent of his fraud. – DMc)

Many health care experts and fraud investigators said they weren’t surprised to hear that insurers were slow to stop even such an outlandish case of fraud.

“It’s just not worth it to them,” said Dr. Eric Bricker, an internist who spent years running a company that advised employers who self-funded their insurance.

For insurance behemoths pulling in billions, or hundreds of billions, in revenue, fraud that sucks away mere millions is not even a rounding error, he said.

And perhaps counterintuitively, insurance companies are loath to offend physicians and hospitals in their all-important networks — even those accused of wrongdoing, many experts have said. They attract new clients by providing access to their networks.

This ambivalence toward fraud, Bricker and others said, is no secret. Scammers like Williams are “emblematic of gazillions of people doing variants of the same thing,” Bricker said. Insurers embolden them by using a catch-and-release approach to fraud, in which the insurers identify criminals, then let them go.

Joe Christensen has pursued fraud for both government and commercial insurers, serving as a director in Aetna’s Special Investigations Unit, a team of more than 100 people ferreting out fraud, from 2013 to 2018 and as the director of Utah’s insurance fraud division for 13 years. Fraud in government programs, like Medicare and Medicaid, gets more publicity, he said, and has dedicated arms of agencies pursuing fraudsters. But the losses may be even greater in the commercial market because the dollar levels are higher, he said.

Some commercial insurers take a passive approach, Christensen said, in part because it’s expensive to press a fraud case. At Aetna, he said, investigators would identify cases of apparent fraud, but it was up to the executives and legal team to decide how to handle them. Taking fraudsters to civil or criminal court requires resources, so the company often settled for trying to get repaid through settlements or blocking a suspect provider from billing, he said.

Christensen said while he was at Aetna, investigators almost never sought to partner with law enforcement agencies to pursue criminal cases.

ProPublica asked Aetna how many criminal cases it had pursued in 2017 and 2018. A company official said the question could not be answered because it does not track such cases.

Williams’ trial began in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas. Without irony, the prosecutor, P.J. Meitl, argued that Williams had preyed on a health insurance system that relies “on trust, relies on honesty” when it pays claims.

He called fraud investigators from Aetna, Cigna and United, who testified that their companies auto-pay millions of claims a year. It’s not cost effective to check them, they said. “Aetna relies on the honesty of the person submitting the claim verifying that it’s true,” testified Kathy Richer, a supervisor in Aetna’s Special Investigations Unit.

Insurers promote themselves as guardians of health care dollars. United says on its website it wants to “help employers manage” medical expenses, resulting in “lower costs.” Aetna promises employers “affordability.” Cigna promises “increased savings.”

But private health insurers allow so much fraud that prosecutors use an idiom to describe the rare person who gets caught: “Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.”

“Pigs” can steal millions, if they bill just enough to avoid notice. But if they get greedy and bill too many millions, they “become a data outlier,” said Elliott, the former fraud task force prosecutor. “You get slaughtered.”

Williams took years to reach hog status.

Part of the problem, experts say, is that health care fraud is often misunderstood as shafting greedy insurers — not the folks paying for health insurance. Ultimately, insurers don’t bear the cost. For their self-funded clients, like Southwest, they merely process the claims. For their traditionally insured clients, they can recover any losses by increasing deductibles and premiums and decreasing coverage.

https://www.propublica.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

One of the arguments frequently made against single payer Medicare for All is that fraud and abuse are rampant in Medicare and that alone would make expanded Medicare unaffordable. It is known that Medicare fraud does occur, especially since we keep reading about it, and it is reported in the media because our public stewards are more diligent at ferreting it out and rectifying it. What this article contributes is an understanding that fraud is rampant in the plans administered by the private insurers, but that there is a deliberate effort to turn a blind eye to the problem.

Fraud in taxpayer-funded government programs quite appropriately creates public outrage and is not tolerated. Fraud in private insurance programs is just a cost of doing business. It does not harm the insurers since the costs are born by the purchasers of the plans in the form of higher premiums. Rarely is any publicity given to it since the insurers would not want their clients to think that they might not be adequately diligent in the oversight of their own trillion dollar industry, and they especially don’t want us to know that we might be bearing the costs of fraud.

Thus the existence of fraud and abuse is actually an argument in favor of enacting and implementing single payer Medicare for All since our public stewards would be much more effective in ferreting it out than would be the private insurers who merely want to keep it out of our sight as they pay off the crooks. Suppressing public knowledge of fraud might be a cool business move on the part of the insurers. but it’s our money that they are giving away.

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