PNHP

“National Health Spending Estimates Under Medicare for All”

“National Health Spending Estimates Under Medicare for All”

RAND 2019

Title: National Health Spending Estimates Under Medicare for All
Year: 2019
Authors: Jodi L. Liu and Christine Eibner
Institution: RAND
Funding Source: Modeled after H.R. 1384
Plan Analyzed: S. 1782 / H.R. 1200
Percent Change in National Health Expenditure under M4A (1-year): +1.75% (2019)
Percent Change in National Health Expenditure under M4A (10-year): NS
Increases in federal health expenditures: $2.4 trillion (2019)

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National Health Spending Estimates Under Medicare for All

Study Abstract:

We estimate that total health expenditures under a Medicare-for-All plan that provides comprehensive coverage and long-term care benefits would be $3.89 trillion in 2019 (assuming such a plan was in place for all of the year), or a 1.8 percent increase relative to expenditures under current law. This estimate accounts for a variety of factors including increased demand for health services, changes in payment and prices, and lower administrative costs. We also include a supply constraint that results in unmet demand equal to 50 percent of the new demand. If there were no supply constraint, we estimate that total health expenditures would increase by 9.8 percent to $4.20 trillion.

While the 1.8 percent increase is a relatively small change in national spending, the federal government’s health care spending would increase substantially, rising from $1.09 trillion to $3.50 trillion, an increase of 221 percent.

Overview:

  • An update done by extrapolating projections from the microsimulation modelling in the 2016 RAND study. No new modelling was undertaken for this analysis.
  • This study considers:
    • Increased demand for medical services and long-term care services and supports (LTSS)
    • Savings from all-payer rates for services, prices for drugs and devices, administrative costs
    • Supply-side constraints for services
    • Level of financing needed for Medicare For All

PNHP Response:

Regarding increased utilization, we would highlight three studies from 2019 that found large-scale coverage expansions in the United States (Medicare/Medicaid in the late 1960s and the ACA in the early 2010s) did not lead to a society-wide increase in hospitalizations or doctor visits, and that large-scale expansions in other nations also did not cause a spike in utilization. (See “Utilization of health care services after large coverage expansions.”)