2016 Republican Platform

Restoring Patient Control and Preserving Quality in Healthcare

Any honest agenda for improving healthcare must start with repeal of the dishonestly named Affordable Care Act of 2010: Obamacare. It weighs like the dead hand of the past upon American medicine. It imposed a Euro-style bureaucracy to manage its unworkable, budget-busting, conflicting provisions. It has driven up prices for all consumers. Their insurance premiums have dramatically increased while their deductibles have risen about eight times faster than wages in the last ten years.

Preserving Medicare and Medicaid

More than 100 million Americans depend on Medicare or Medicaid for their healthcare; with our population aging, that number will increase. To preserve Medicare and Medicaid, the financing of these important programs must be brought under control before they consume most of the federal budget, including national defense. We intend to save Medicare by modernizing it, empowering its participants, and putting it on a secure financial footing. We will preserve the promise of Medicaid as well by making that program, designed for 1965 medicine, a vehicle for good health in an entirely new era.

Medicare’s long-term debt is in the trillions, and it is funded by a workforce that is shrinking relative to the size of future beneficiaries. When a vital program is so clearly headed for a train wreck, it’s time to put it on a more secure track. That is why we propose these reforms: Impose no changes for persons 55 or older. Give others the option of traditional Medicare or transition to a premium-support model designed to strengthen patient choice, promote cost-saving competition among providers, and better guard against the fraud and abuse that now diverts billions of dollars every year away from patient care. Guarantee to every enrollee an income-adjusted contribution toward a plan of their choice, with catastrophic protection. Without disadvantaging present retirees or those nearing retirement, set a more realistic age for eligibility in light of today’s longer life span.

Medicaid presents related, but somewhat different challenges. As the dominant force in the health market with regard to long-term care, births, and persons with mental illness, it is the next frontier of welfare reform. It is simply too big and too flawed to be administered from Washington. Most of the vaunted expansion of health insurance coverage under Obamacare actually has been an unprecedented expansion of the Medicaid rolls in many states. We applaud the Republican governors and state legislators who have undertaken the hard work of modernizing Medicaid. We will give them a free hand to do so by block-granting the program without strings. Their initiatives — whether premium supports for purchasing insurance, refundable tax credits, alternatives to hospitalization for chronic patients, disease prevention activities, and other innovations — are the best strategy for preserving Medicaid for those who need it the most.

https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL%5b1%5d-ben_1468872234.pdf?mid=76323&rid=16464502

***

2008 Democratic Party Platform

Covering All Americans and Providing Real Choices of Affordable Health Insurance Options

Families and individuals should have the option of keeping the coverage they have or choosing from a wide array of health insurance plans, including many private health insurance options and a public plan. Coverage should be made affordable for all Americans with subsidies provided through tax credits and other means.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=78283

***

2016 Democratic Party Platform (DRAFT)

Universal Health Care

We believe as Democrats that health care is a right, not a privilege, and our health care system should put people before profits. Thanks to the hard work of President Obama and Democrats in Congress we took a critically important step towards the goal of universal health care by passing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has offered coverage to 20 million more Americans and ensured millions more will never be denied coverage on account of a pre-existing condition.

We will keep costs down by making premiums more affordable, reducing out-of-pocket expenses, and capping prescription drug costs. Democrats will also work to end surprise billing and other practices associated with out-of-control medical debt that lead to unconscionable economic strain on American households. We will offer relief so Americans do not face high costs, and we will fight back against insurers trying to impose excessive premium increases.

https://demconvention.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2016-DEMOCRATIC-PARTY-PLATFORM-DRAFT-7.1.16.pdf

***

Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Political party platforms are typically loaded with rhetoric designed to fire up the political base, and, as such, are often not taken seriously. But piercing through the rhetoric there are often concepts of substance, good or bad. Take health care.

The Democratic platform of 2008 promised us a market of private health plans with government subsidies. That, in essence, is what we got as a major feature of the Affordable care Act. The Democrats rejected single payer and instead delivered on their comparatively feeble platform promises.

For the preliminary draft of their 2016 platform, the Democrats again voted to reject single payer and substituted it with a “health care is a right” statement void of any meaningful policy. They support instead mere tweaks to the Affordable Car Act.

Reading past the Republican’s rhetoric, they are now promising in their platform changes to two of our most important government health programs. They would convert Medicare to a premium support program, shifting costs away from the federal government and onto the backs of Medicare beneficiaries. They would also establish block grants to the states for the Medicaid program, shifting costs from the federal government and onto the states, many of which which would likely respond with a reduction in essential health care benefits for the needy.

One party wants to coast along with a grossly deficient system, leaving millions uninsured and underinsured, and the other would begin to dismantle what protection the government does provide. Wish they would dump the rhetoric and start working on real policy that would ensure adequate, affordable health care for everyone.

Of course, several readers would remind us that the Green Party supports single payer reform. Yes… Hmm…

Physicians for a National Health Program is a nonpartisan educational organization. It neither supports nor opposes any political party or candidate for public office.

2016 Republican Platform

Restoring Patient Control and Preserving Quality in Healthcare

Any honest agenda for improving healthcare must start with repeal of the dishonestly named Affordable Care Act of 2010: Obamacare. It weighs like the dead hand of the past upon American medicine. It imposed a Euro-style bureaucracy to manage its unworkable, budget-busting, conflicting provisions. It has driven up prices for all consumers. Their insurance premiums have dramatically increased while their deductibles have risen about eight times faster than wages in the last ten years.

Preserving Medicare and Medicaid

More than 100 million Americans depend on Medicare or Medicaid for their healthcare; with our population aging, that number will increase. To preserve Medicare and Medicaid, the financing of these important programs must be brought under control before they consume most of the federal budget, including national defense. We intend to save Medicare by modernizing it, empowering its participants, and putting it on a secure financial footing. We will preserve the promise of Medicaid as well by making that program, designed for 1965 medicine, a vehicle for good health in an entirely new era.

Medicare’s long-term debt is in the trillions, and it is funded by a workforce that is shrinking relative to the size of future beneficiaries. When a vital program is so clearly headed for a train wreck, it’s time to put it on a more secure track. That is why we propose these reforms: Impose no changes for persons 55 or older. Give others the option of traditional Medicare or transition to a premium-support model designed to strengthen patient choice, promote cost-saving competition among providers, and better guard against the fraud and abuse that now diverts billions of dollars every year away from patient care. Guarantee to every enrollee an income-adjusted contribution toward a plan of their choice, with catastrophic protection. Without disadvantaging present retirees or those nearing retirement, set a more realistic age for eligibility in light of today’s longer life span.

Medicaid presents related, but somewhat different challenges. As the dominant force in the health market with regard to long-term care, births, and persons with mental illness, it is the next frontier of welfare reform. It is simply too big and too flawed to be administered from Washington. Most of the vaunted expansion of health insurance coverage under Obamacare actually has been an unprecedented expansion of the Medicaid rolls in many states. We applaud the Republican governors and state legislators who have undertaken the hard work of modernizing Medicaid. We will give them a free hand to do so by block-granting the program without strings. Their initiatives — whether premium supports for purchasing insurance, refundable tax credits, alternatives to hospitalization for chronic patients, disease prevention activities, and other innovations — are the best strategy for preserving Medicaid for those who need it the most.

https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL%5b1%5d-ben_1468872234.pdf?mid=76323&rid=16464502

***

2008 Democratic Party Platform

Covering All Americans and Providing Real Choices of Affordable Health Insurance Options

Families and individuals should have the option of keeping the coverage they have or choosing from a wide array of health insurance plans, including many private health insurance options and a public plan. Coverage should be made affordable for all Americans with subsidies provided through tax credits and other means.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=78283

***

2016 Democratic Party Platform (DRAFT)

Universal Health Care

We believe as Democrats that health care is a right, not a privilege, and our health care system should put people before profits. Thanks to the hard work of President Obama and Democrats in Congress we took a critically important step towards the goal of universal health care by passing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has offered coverage to 20 million more Americans and ensured millions more will never be denied coverage on account of a pre-existing condition.

We will keep costs down by making premiums more affordable, reducing out-of-pocket expenses, and capping prescription drug costs. Democrats will also work to end surprise billing and other practices associated with out-of-control medical debt that lead to unconscionable economic strain on American households. We will offer relief so Americans do not face high costs, and we will fight back against insurers trying to impose excessive premium increases.

https://demconvention.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2016-DEMOCRATIC-PARTY-PLATFORM-DRAFT-7.1.16.pdf

Political party platforms are typically loaded with rhetoric designed to fire up the political base, and, as such, are often not taken seriously. But piercing through the rhetoric there are often concepts of substance, good or bad. Take health care.

The Democratic platform of 2008 promised us a market of private health plans with government subsidies. That, in essence, is what we got as a major feature of the Affordable care Act. The Democrats rejected single payer and instead delivered on their comparatively feeble platform promises.

For the preliminary draft of their 2016 platform, the Democrats again voted to reject single payer and substituted it with a “health care is a right” statement void of any meaningful policy. They support instead mere tweaks to the Affordable Car Act.

Reading past the Republican’s rhetoric, they are now promising in their platform changes to two of our most important government health programs. They would convert Medicare to a premium support program, shifting costs away from the federal government and onto the backs of Medicare beneficiaries. They would also establish block grants to the states for the Medicaid program, shifting costs from the federal government and onto the states, many of which which would likely respond with a reduction in essential health care benefits for the needy.

One party wants to coast along with a grossly deficient system, leaving millions uninsured and underinsured, and the other would begin to dismantle what protection the government does provide. Wish they would dump the rhetoric and start working on real policy that would ensure adequate, affordable health care for everyone.

Of course, several readers would remind us that the Green Party supports single payer reform. Yes… Hmm…

Physicians for a National Health Program is a nonpartisan educational organization. It neither supports nor opposes any political party or candidate for public office.

NHS – on life support

By Alex Scott-Samuel
Politics of Health Group POHG Blog, July 17, 2016

I want to give a broad political overview of what’s happening in the NHS in England and of the background to the current situation.

As you’ll know, the English NHS is in a bad way, with practically every part of the country in financial deficit. Many hospitals and many services are being closed down, cut back or rationed. At the same time, many long term contracts for the provision of NHS services are being awarded to private sector companies – though often people are unaware of this because the likes of Virgin, Carillion and SpecSavers are allowed to operate under the NHS logo.

By definition, these arrangements are wasteful, because private companies have a duty to make profits and to give those profits to their shareholders. That means that public money is haemorrhaging out of the NHS – whereas when a public provider of NHS services makes a surplus it is reinvested in the NHS.

There is also a substantial legacy of (mainly Labour initiated) private finance initiative (PFI) funded hospitals, whose exorbitant loan interest payments have to be made before NHS funds can be spent on routine services. And it’s no coincidence that people’s inboxes are filling up with adverts for health insurance, with their invitations to jump the NHS queues. Everything I’ve described forms part of what in my view is an intentional strategy by the Conservative government to create financial, managerial, professional and public chaos throughout the NHS, so that private provision of NHS services, alternative private health services, health insurance, and NHS co-payments and ultimately charges will be seen as inevitable.

This ‘cultural revolution’ takes many different and apparently unrelated forms whose destructive nature is denied by the government – which continues to assert that it has the public interest at heart and that it is factors like the ongoing impact of the credit crash, the increasing costs of drugs and medical equipment, the ageing population and our unhealthy lifestyles which are the true problems facing the NHS. The building blocks for privatisation to which I have referred currently include: the aforementioned awarding of NHS contracts to private bidders – often asset strippers who provide poor quality services, fragment and undermine the cohesive public ethos of the NHS; the creation by the Treasury of NHS deficits and of regulations which forbid them; enforced rationing of services to extend waiting lists and encourage patients to seek private alternatives; manufactured confrontations with doctors and other members of the NHS workforce; the imposition of ‘new models of care’ which undermine NHS hospitals and create community based healthcare structures ripe for privatisation; personal health budgets, designed to link with health insurance. There are many more and I can provide documented evidence for all of them. It is a national scandal.

What is to be done? Until we have a government committed to tackling and reversing this appalling onslaught on our beloved NHS, we must continue to expose what is happening, to challenge it and to campaign loudly and widely in order to increase public awareness and action.

http://www.pohg.org.uk/blog/nhs-on-life-support/

***

Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D

The phased privatization of England’s National Health Service is taking a toll in undermining “the cohesive public ethos of the NHS.” This brief description by Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel will give you a hint of the disaster that is taking place. Their political leaders apparently have learned nothing from the dysfunction that characterizes our system in the U.S., nor are we learning anything from them.

At a time that we need to be converting our fragmented public and private insurance system into a single public program, we are going in the opposite direction. Our public Medicare program is being privatized through similar cognitive processes as are taking place in England.

Just as the Conservative and Labor parties have conspired in these changes, here in the U.S. the Republicans and Democrats, the latter now dominated by the neoliberals, are damaging the traditional Medicare program through neglect while pushing on with fiscal and regulatory policies that have expanded enrollment in the private Medicare Advantage plans. When you read the paragraph above on the “cultural revolution” you cannot help but note the similar ethic of the two nations driving this insane march to rent-seekers nirvana at a cost of compromising patient care.

We can learn something from this, can’t we?

NHS – on life support

By Alex Scott-Samuel
Politics of Health Group POHG Blog, July 17, 2016

I want to give a broad political overview of what’s happening in the NHS in England and of the background to the current situation.

As you’ll know, the English NHS is in a bad way, with practically every part of the country in financial deficit. Many hospitals and many services are being closed down, cut back or rationed. At the same time, many long term contracts for the provision of NHS services are being awarded to private sector companies – though often people are unaware of this because the likes of Virgin, Carillion and SpecSavers are allowed to operate under the NHS logo.

By definition, these arrangements are wasteful, because private companies have a duty to make profits and to give those profits to their shareholders. That means that public money is haemorrhaging out of the NHS – whereas when a public provider of NHS services makes a surplus it is reinvested in the NHS.

There is also a substantial legacy of (mainly Labour initiated) private finance initiative (PFI) funded hospitals, whose exorbitant loan interest payments have to be made before NHS funds can be spent on routine services. And it’s no coincidence that people’s inboxes are filling up with adverts for health insurance, with their invitations to jump the NHS queues. Everything I’ve described forms part of what in my view is an intentional strategy by the Conservative government to create financial, managerial, professional and public chaos throughout the NHS, so that private provision of NHS services, alternative private health services, health insurance, and NHS co-payments and ultimately charges will be seen as inevitable.

This ‘cultural revolution’ takes many different and apparently unrelated forms whose destructive nature is denied by the government – which continues to assert that it has the public interest at heart and that it is factors like the ongoing impact of the credit crash, the increasing costs of drugs and medical equipment, the ageing population and our unhealthy lifestyles which are the true problems facing the NHS. The building blocks for privatisation to which I have referred currently include: the aforementioned awarding of NHS contracts to private bidders – often asset strippers who provide poor quality services, fragment and undermine the cohesive public ethos of the NHS; the creation by the Treasury of NHS deficits and of regulations which forbid them; enforced rationing of services to extend waiting lists and encourage patients to seek private alternatives; manufactured confrontations with doctors and other members of the NHS workforce; the imposition of ‘new models of care’ which undermine NHS hospitals and create community based healthcare structures ripe for privatisation; personal health budgets, designed to link with health insurance. There are many more and I can provide documented evidence for all of them. It is a national scandal.

What is to be done? Until we have a government committed to tackling and reversing this appalling onslaught on our beloved NHS, we must continue to expose what is happening, to challenge it and to campaign loudly and widely in order to increase public awareness and action.

http://www.pohg.org.uk/blog/nhs-on-life-support/

The phased privatization of England’s National Health Service is taking a toll in undermining “the cohesive public ethos of the NHS.” This brief description by Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel will give you a hint of the disaster that is taking place. Their political leaders apparently have learned nothing from the dysfunction that characterizes our system in the U.S., nor are we learning anything from them.

At a time that we need to be converting our fragmented public and private insurance system into a single public program, we are going in the opposite direction. Our public Medicare program is being privatized through similar cognitive processes as are taking place in England.

Just as the Conservative and Labor parties have conspired in these changes, here in the U.S. the Republicans and Democrats, the latter now dominated by the neoliberals, are damaging the traditional Medicare program through neglect while pushing on with fiscal and regulatory policies that have expanded enrollment in the private Medicare Advantage plans. When you read the paragraph above on the “cultural revolution” you cannot help but note the similar ethic of the two nations driving this insane march to rent-seekers nirvana at a cost of compromising patient care.

We can learn something from this, can’t we?

Holy MACRA! Half of docs have never heard of Medicare payment reform

By Dave Barkholz
Modern Healthcare, July 14, 2016

Half of non-pediatric physicians have never heard of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015—a new CMS payment plan that will put 4% or more of their Medicare reimbursement at risk beginning in 2019, according to a new survey by Deloitte & Touche.

With CMS preparing final rules this autumn, just 21% of self-employed or small-group physicians and 9% of physicians employed by hospitals or larger groups were even somewhat familiar with the pending reimbursement changes, the survey showed.

Physicians with a high share of Medicare payments were just as clueless about MACRA as those with lesser exposures, Deloitte found.

MACRA has two payment tracks. Clinicians in advanced alternative payment models can earn bonuses annually of 5%.

The majority of physicians, though, will participate in the Merit-based Incentive Payment System. On that track, physicians can earn plus or minus 4% of reimbursement in 2019, 5% in 2020, 7% in 2021 and 9% in 2022.

Medicare’s own MACRA projections show the vast majority of physicians in groups of less than 10 suffering penalties.

That includes 87% of solo practitioners who can expect their reimbursement to fall and 70% of physicians in groups of two to nine, Medicare data show.

http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20160714/BLOG/160719930/blog-holy-macra-half-of-docs-have-never-heard-of-medicare-payment

Deloitte release:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloitte-survey-finds-low-physician-awareness-and-many-needed-changes-by-physicians-for-medicares-macra-program-300297982.html

Quote of the Day: MACRA and the ethics of physician burnout (4/22/16):

https://pnhp.org/news/2016/april/macra-and-the-ethics-of-physician-burnout

(WARNING: Reading the Table of Contents of the following document has been known to cause acute bouts of depression)

Federal Register: Medicare Program; Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) and Alternative Payment Model (APM) Incentive Under the Physician Fee Schedule, and Criteria for Physician-Focused Payment Models:

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/05/09/2016-10032/medicare-program-merit-based-incentive-payment-system-mips-and-alternative-payment-model-apm

Physicians celebrated the passage of MACRA because it brought the end to the despised SGR method of making adjustments to Medicare payment rates. The legislation was not simply a repeal of SGR, but it was repeal and replace legislation. Most physicians are not “even somewhat familiar with the pending reimbursement changes.”

Physicians complain about Medicare’s low payment rates, but are they in for a surprise. Most solo and small group physicians will have rate cuts of up to 9 percent under MACRA.

Those interested in more information may want to read the Federal Register entry on MACRA’s MIPS and APM (link above), or maybe not, since it could take you the better part of a week. Just reading the very long Table of Contents may be enough.

In a fairly recent Quote of the Day we described how MACRA will likely compound the current epidemic of physician burnout (link above). It’s depressing.

We can do something about it. We can enact and implement a well designed single payer national health program. For those who think that the current system is better, it is probably time to make an appointment with your mental health professional.

Holy MACRA! Half of docs have never heard of Medicare payment reform

By Dave Barkholz
Modern Healthcare, July 14, 2016

Half of non-pediatric physicians have never heard of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015—a new CMS payment plan that will put 4% or more of their Medicare reimbursement at risk beginning in 2019, according to a new survey by Deloitte & Touche.

With CMS preparing final rules this autumn, just 21% of self-employed or small-group physicians and 9% of physicians employed by hospitals or larger groups were even somewhat familiar with the pending reimbursement changes, the survey showed.

Physicians with a high share of Medicare payments were just as clueless about MACRA as those with lesser exposures, Deloitte found.

MACRA has two payment tracks. Clinicians in advanced alternative payment models can earn bonuses annually of 5%.

The majority of physicians, though, will participate in the Merit-based Incentive Payment System. On that track, physicians can earn plus or minus 4% of reimbursement in 2019, 5% in 2020, 7% in 2021 and 9% in 2022.

Medicare’s own MACRA projections show the vast majority of physicians in groups of less than 10 suffering penalties.

That includes 87% of solo practitioners who can expect their reimbursement to fall and 70% of physicians in groups of two to nine, Medicare data show.

http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20160714/BLOG/160719930/blog-holy-macra-half-of-docs-have-never-heard-of-medicare-payment

Deloitte release:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloitte-survey-finds-low-physician-awareness-and-many-needed-changes-by-physicians-for-medicares-macra-program-300297982.html

Quote of the Day: MACRA and the ethics of physician burnout (4/22/16):

https://www.pnhp.org/news/2016/april/macra-and-the-ethics-of-physician-burnout

(WARNING: Reading the Table of Contents of the following document has been known to cause acute bouts of depression)

Federal Register: Medicare Program; Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) and Alternative Payment Model (APM) Incentive Under the Physician Fee Schedule, and Criteria for Physician-Focused Payment Models:

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/05/09/2016-10032/medicare-program-merit-based-incentive-payment-system-mips-and-alternative-payment-model-apm

***

Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Physicians celebrated the passage of MACRA because it brought the end to the despised SGR method of making adjustments to Medicare payment rates. The legislation was not simply a repeal of SGR, but it was repeal and replace legislation. Most physicians are not “even somewhat familiar with the pending reimbursement changes.”

Physicians complain about Medicare’s low payment rates, but are they in for a surprise. Most solo and small group physicians will have rate cuts of up to 9 percent under MACRA.

Those interested in more information may want to read the Federal Register entry on MACRA’s MIPS and APM (link above), or maybe not, since it could take you the better part of a week. Just reading the very long Table of Contents may be enough.

In a fairly recent Quote of the Day we described how MACRA will likely compound the current epidemic of physician burnout (link above). It’s depressing.

We can do something about it. We can enact and implement a well designed single payer national health program. For those who think that the current system is better, it is probably time to make an appointment with your mental health professional.

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2015–25: Economy, Prices, And Aging Expected To Shape Spending And Enrollment

By Sean P. Keehan, John A. Poisal, Gigi A. Cuckler, Andrea M. Sisko, Sheila D. Smith, Andrew J. Madison, Devin A. Stone, Christian J. Wolfe and Joseph M. Lizonitz (all from CMS Office of the Actuary)
Health Affairs, July 13, 2016 (Online before print)

Abstract

Health spending growth in the United States for 2015–25 is projected to average 5.8 percent — 1.3 percentage points faster than growth in the gross domestic product — and to represent 20.1 percent of the total economy by 2025. As the initial impacts associated with the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansions fade, growth in health spending is expected to be influenced by changes in economic growth, faster growth in medical prices, and population aging. Projected national health spending growth, though faster than observed in the recent history, is slower than in the two decades before the recent Great Recession, in part because of trends such as increasing cost sharing in private health insurance plans and various Medicare payment update provisions. In addition, the share of total health expenditures paid for by federal, state, and local governments is projected to increase to 47 percent by 2025.

National Health Expenditures (NHE) 2016

NHE  $3.3507 trillion
NHE as percent of GDP  18.1%
Government proportion of NHE  46%
NHE per capita  $10,345.5

Conclusion

The health sector is in the midst of a unique period, in which various forces are exerting differential pressures on health spending growth. Economywide and medical-specific price growth have been very low, helping restrain inflation’s impact on health spending, and the Medicare program is experimenting with various alternative payment approaches. Meanwhile, many Americans are gaining access to health coverage for the first time, aging into Medicare, or finding that a greater share of their health expenses needs to be paid out of pocket. And the Medicaid program is evolving: Its population mix is increasingly likely to be covered through private plans.

For the period 2015–25, growth in health spending is projected to average 5.8 percent, influenced in part by an expectation of higher economywide and medical prices. By 2025, as economic, legislative, and demographic influences play out, the health spending share of the economy is projected to reach 20.1 percent, up from 17.5 percent in 2014, and governments are anticipated to sponsor 47 percent of health spending, up from 45 percent in 2014. The percentage of the US population that is uninsured is expected to be 8 percent in 2025, down from about 11 percent in 2014.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/early/2016/07/12/hlthaff.2016.0459.abstract

CMS National Health Expenditure Projections 2015-2025:
https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/Proj2015.pdf

***

Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

The Great Recession has contributed to slowing of the growth in health care spending in recent years, but the future changes are predicted to be more closely related to various demographic related coverage changes plus certain payment trends including the increase in cost sharing in private insurance plans. Also the increase in the government contribution to our national health expenditures deserves special mention.

Regarding increases in patient cost sharing, it is no secret that this has been a blunt instrument to control spending, resulting in a decline in use of beneficial health care services. As has been stated repeatedly, we need more patient-friendly methods of slowing the increase in spending such as fairer publicly-administered pricing through a single payer national health program.

The government contribution to our national health expenditures has increased to 46 percent, but that does not include two large components of taxpayer-funded government spending on health care: 1) The government contribution to employee health insurance on the federal, state and local levels, and 2) the massive tax expenditures for employer-sponsored health plans (i.e., the health insurance component of the employee benefit package is not subject to income taxes, reducing revenue for the government which must be made up by other taxpayers).

The irony is that we already pay in taxes devoted to health care alone more than almost every other nation pays in public and private health care spending combined. Without increasing our current level of spending we could pay for a comprehensive, government-financed, single payer national health program. Yet we continue to support our dysfunctional financing system that wastes so much on administrative excesses while perpetuating injustices by misallocating distribution of our health care resources.

We can and must do better.