Title: Improving the prognosis of health care in the USA
Year: 2020
Authors: Alison P. Galvani, Alyssa S. Parpia, Eric M. Foster, Burton H. Singer, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick
Institution: Yale School of Public Health
Funding Source: N/A
Plan Analyzed: S. 1804 Medicare for All Act of 2017
Percent Change in National Health Expenditure under M4A (1-year): -13.1% (2017)
Percent Change in National Health Expenditure under M4A (10-year): NS
Increase in Federal health expenditures: $773 billion (2017)

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Improving the prognosis of health care in the USA

Study Abstract:

Although health care expenditure per capita is higher in the USA than in any other country, more than 37 million Americans do not have health insurance, and 41 million more have inadequate access to care. Efforts are ongoing to repeal the Affordable Care Act which would exacerbate health care inequities. By contrast, a universal system, such as that proposed in the Medicare for All Act, has the potential to transform the availability and efficiency of American health care services. Taking into account both the costs of coverage expansion, and the savings that would be achieved through the Medicare for All Act, we calculate that a single-payer, universal health care system is likely to lead to a 13% savings in national health-care expenditure, equivalent to more than US$450 billion annually (based on the value of the US$ in 2017). The entire system could be funded with less financial outlay than is incurred by employers and households paying for health care premiums combined with existing government allocations. This shift to single-payer health care would provide the greatest relief to lower-income households. Furthermore, we estimate that ensuring health care access for all Americans would save more than 68,000 lives and 1.73 million life-years every year compared with the status quo.

Overview:

• In early 2020, Alison Galvani published a cost-analysis of the Senate Medicare for All bill, S. 1804. Of note, Galvani served as an “informal unpaid adviser” to the writers of this particular bill.
• The Yale study focuses on:
  • Savings from reduced fees for hospital and clinical services, unified system for billing and administration, pharmaceutical price negotiation
  • The cost of expansion of coverage and services
  • Financing plan effects on employers and households
  • Public health approach to estimate “life-years” saved by Medicare for All
  • Positive spillovers from emphasizing preventive services
  • Creation of a Tool that can model costs/savings as well as revenue generation

Further Reading:

SHIFT Tool allowing users to modify inputs and assumptions