MarketWatch
September 18, 2008
Although fundamentals for the vast majority of life/health companies are currently sound, uncertainty continues to be widespread in terms of the future direction of the economy, real estate values, interest rates, equity markets–both domestically and globally–and liquidity. All of these factors have had an impact on life/health insurers’ balance sheet strength and operating performance.
As the federal government takes unprecedented steps to promote stability in financial markets and limit damage to the broader economy, A.M. Best notes both the political uncertainty of the upcoming Presidential election as well as the enhanced regulatory scrutiny that currently pervades the life/health industry. These issues are most prevalent across health insurance product lines, which are influenced significantly by regulation at both the federal and state levels. As a result, A.M. Best has revised the rating outlook on the health insurance industry to negative.
With employers dropping coverage, and politicians and regulators seeking ways to provide coverage for the uninsured, the individual medical market has become ultra competitive. A.M. Best has similar concerns with the small group medical market as large, national managed care companies compete despite low profit margins.
Moreover, the current economic environment is placing additional pressures on the managed care sector. The commercial market has been extremely competitive for some time with limited growth potential. Layoffs and bankruptcies will impact commercial enrollment, while cost factors could pressure employees to drop coverage. Many publicly traded managed care companies have increased their financial leverage over the past year mainly for share repurchase and acquisitions (with goodwill), all of which increase balance sheet risk. While A.M. Best acknowledges that managed care companies tend to have more liquid and conservative investment portfolios due to the short-tailed nature of the claims, the issues that have emerged on Wall Street, and in the real estate market, are expected to result in writedowns of certain investments.
Comment:
By Don McCanne, MD
When the economy goes South, and unemployment rates increase, publicly financed programs face budget constraints because of the decline in tax revenues. Think of our public education system. Publicly financed health programs (over half of all health care spending today) face similar constraints.
So we should look at the stability of the financing of health care through private health plans. This report from A.M. Best indicates that market volatility will have a negative impact on the participation in their health insurance products and on the insurers’ return on their investments.
A shift away from large employer coverage and towards individual and small group insurance products has made these markets “ultra competitive,” resulting in narrower profit margins. It is ironic that increased competition is considered to be a threat to the insurers’ business model. At the same time “enhanced regulatory scrutiny” is also a threat. It seems that the health insurance industry will have difficulties no matter whether free market or government regulation policies prevail.
In addition, a significant portion of insurers’ profits comes from their investments that have nothing to do with health care. As their investment revenues decline they must make up the difference by increasing the spread between their revenues and costs. Since their high administrative costs are relatively fixed, they must turn to increases in premiums and decreases in benefits paid. The decrease in benefits is accomplished by reducing the health benefits which are covered, and by increasing cost-sharing by the patients. Underinsurance is already a major problem, and it will expand further under current trends.
Any financial crisis would impact both publicly and privately financed programs, but the private investor-owned programs are more severely impacted. Looking at the current financial crisis, it’s clear that only our government has the capability and resources to ensure health security for all of us… forever.
