KAMALA HARRIS’ PLAN FOR MEDICARE FOR ALL

KAMALA HARRIS FOR THE PEOPLE, July 29, 2019

(excerpts)

Medicare for All will provide every individual in America with access to comprehensive health care.

HOW DOES THIS PLAN WORK AND HOW WILL WE TRANSITION TO MEDICARE FOR ALL?

Under my Medicare for All plan, we will immediately allow people to buy into a Medicare Transition Plan through an extended 10-year phase-in period.

We will automatically enroll newborns (with an opt-out provision for families with employer-sponsored insurance) and the uninsured into a Medicare Transition Plan, and provide a commonsense path for employers, employees, the underinsured, children, and others on federally-designated programs, such as Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act exchanges, to transition into the Medicare Transition Plan.

Second, after the 10-year transition period, we will have a new Medicare framework where most Americans will be in an expanded and improved public Medicare plan. In my Medicare for All system, similar to Medicare Advantage today, private insurance plans can contract through Medicare and compete with the public Medicare plan. However, these private Medicare plans will be subject to stricter consumer protection requirements than under current law, such as getting reimbursed by Medicare for less than the cost of the public Medicare plan to ensure taxpayers aren’t subsidizing insurance company profits. Americans can then choose whether to stay in the public Medicare plan or opt-into a private Medicare plan.

WHAT ABOUT EMPLOYER-BASED PLANS?

During the transition period, employers can continue to provide private health coverage to employees. However, employers will also have the opportunity to provide health care for their employees through the Medicare Transition Plan, with a shared responsibility payment. Employees will also have the option on their own to buy into the Medicare Transition Plan during the transition period.

Following the transition period, under my Medicare for All system, employers will have the option to provide a private Medicare plan for their employees that will be certified by the Medicare program, similar to how employers can offer Medicare Advantage plans today. Employees could choose to be in that employer Medicare plan, a different private Medicare plan, or the public Medicare plan.

WHAT ABOUT ORGANIZED LABOR AND UNION WORKERS?

Under my Medicare for All plan, union workers will have the option to join Medicare and stop sacrificing wages for better health care. Unions could also continue working with employers to offer a private Medicare plan option or supplemental benefits in addition to the Medicare plan.

DOES YOUR PLAN ELIMINATE ALL PRIVATE INSURANCE?

No. Under my Medicare for All system, the power of big insurance companies will be greatly diminished. After the transition period, private insurance will only exist in two ways:

1) At the end of the day, Americans want to be able to choose their doctor and the care they receive, not the insurance company that provides it. Under my plan, private insurers can compete with the new public Medicare plan, as long as the plans they offer adhere to strict requirements like those laid out below. This would function similarly to how Medicare Advantage operates within the Medicare system today. Today, 35% of seniors are enrolled in private Medicare plans that get paid directly by Medicare and, in fact, 25% of current private Medicare insurance plans are already at or below 95% of Medicare costs.

In my Medicare for All system, Medicare will continue to set the rules of the road for these plans, including price and quality, and private insurance companies will play by those rules, not the other way around. But unlike under the current program, these private Medicare plans will be held to stricter consumer protection standards than they are today, such as getting reimbursed less than what the public Medicare plan will cost to operate, to ensure that they are delivering meaningful value and unable to profit off of gaming consumers or the government.

2) People will be able to purchase supplemental insurance covering services not included under Medicare for All, such as medical insurance for traveling abroad and cosmetic surgery. Employers will still be able to offer their employees retiree supplemental coverage through a private insurance plan.

https://kamalaharris.org/medicare-for-all

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Although there had been a surge in support for the single payer model of Medicare for All, that support is now being qualified with the condition that private insurance plans remain an option to an improved Medicare program that would otherwise cover everyone.

Polling organizations have added this qualification to routine polls on Medicare for All, but without asking if there would be a preference for a public plan that would offer more benefits than the typical private plan, with greater choice of physicians and hospitals, and lower costs for most individuals and families. To no surprise, the majority participating in the polls would like to have the option to choose a private plan in addition to having available a guaranteed public plan – Medicare for All.

The media have latched onto this preference for having the option to choose a private plan, but some have expanded it to say that many Americans prefer their private plans and should not have them taken away.

Today’s message is about the concept of not eliminating the option of choosing a private plan. It is not about Kamala Harris’ campaign. The reason she is mentioned is that the media has been pounding on her about whether she would prohibit private plans as an option to Medicare for All. With the second round of debates coming up this week, she would certainly be hit hard on this if she didn’t adjust her message. So, although we are examining her defensive policy adjustment, the changes she is supporting represent the more moderate views of those who would support a Medicare public option instead, along with adjustments to the Affordable Care Act. That is, the changes represent allegedly mainstream views that voters may be looking for in the upcoming primary and general elections.

The issues are complex, and her suggestions add to the complexity. So how do you straighten this all out? Well, she asks to expand the transition to Medicare for All to ten years. But look at what happened to the Affordable Care Act after ten years of political shenanigans. It’s worse than what they began with. The numbers of uninsured have been increasing again, the out-of-pocket costs have become less affordable, and provider networks have markedly narrowed, especially with the largest ACA expansion – Medicaid. Does anyone really believe that the ten year transition would escape political sabotage?

Perhaps even more alarming is that the private insurance options proposed are basically the private Medicare Advantage plans that are being touted as being preferred by seniors. (It is merely because the private plans can offer better benefits by being overpaid at the same time the traditional Medicare program has been neglected, especially by not providing catastrophic protection.) This is fulfilling the dream of the private insurance industry that has been advocating for “Medicare Advantage for All” that places the entire nation in private health plans.

Harris’ proposal does call for the private plans to be paid 5% less than the costs of Medicare, just like the original Medicare + Choice program wherein the private insurers promised that they could provide higher quality at lower costs. It turns out they couldn’t, so the Choice program was terminated and profitable private Medicare Advantage replaced it. We know what happened there. The insurers were very successful in marketing their plans to the healthy while high cost patients were left in the traditional Medicare program. In response, the government then introduced risk adjustment to compensate for the overpayment to the private plans. The plans then expanded the diagnoses codes making their relatively healthy patients seem to be sicker than they were in order to quality for upward adjustments in the payment rates. Thus they are still being overpaid though there is disagreement as to how much. At any rate, the insurance industry is so powerful that you know there is no way that they would be compensated at rates 5% below traditional Medicare payments.

But what about the general principle of using multiple competing private plans as opposed to one single universal risk pool in a single payer Medicare for All program? One of the most important advantages of single payer is that administrative costs are dramatically reduced. Close to half a trillion dollars per year could be recovered by switching our fragmented system to single payer. Splitting up the risk pool amongst a slew of private insurers greatly increases the administrative complexity.

So what about those countries in Europe that they tell us use private plans successfully for their health care financing systems? In a Quote of the Day analysis of a 2011 OECD/WHO report on the Swiss health system, I commented: “It is not clear why so many in the U.S. are enamored of the Swiss health insurance system when this OECD/WHO report confirms that it is highly inefficient and fragmented, with profound administrative waste, inequitably funded, with regressive financing and with wide variations in premiums, has the highest out-of-pocket costs, has an increasing prevalence of managed care intrusions, and is controlled by a private insurance industry that has learned how to game risk selection at significant cost to those on the losing end.” (https://pnhp.org…)

So Kamala Harris might have repaired her debate sound bite on the private insurance option for Medicare for All, but she, and almost everyone else, are sure screwing up the message on single payer policies. Their policy modifications would have tragic results if eventually enacted and implemented, compared to a well designed single payer Medicare for All. (https://pnhp.org…)

As the title of a recent Quote of the Day states, “Do not sacrifice policy for the sake of political expediency.” (https://pnhp.org…)

PNHP does not support any politician or political campaign. This message is intended to reflect only on the wisdom, or rather lack thereof, of offering private insurance plans as an option in a single payer Medicare for All program.

Stay informed! Visit www.pnhp.org/qotd to sign up for daily email updates.

By Ed Weisbart, M.D., C.P.E., F.A.A.F.P.
American Association for Physician Leadership, July 25, 2019

In the nearly ten years since I retired as chief medical officer for a large pharmacy benefit manager, it seems my perspective has shifted.

Before I left, I remember a discussion bemoaning the public’s increasingly critical view of managed care. We valiantly searched for a narrative to bolster our industry’s image.

The best example we found was about an insurer that helped a patient switch from the non-formulary drug her physician prescribed over to that insurer’s preference. We were all proud that the insurer had done extensive patient outreach and care coordination rather than just deny the pharmacy claim. While patting ourselves on our backs, we failed to recognize that the very existence of our fragmented insurance industry was the reason the patient needed to take something other than her physician’s first choice.

I was reminded of all of this when I read Erik Sherman’s “Sudden Medical Bills Surprising, But No Fun” in the May/June 2019 Physician Leadership Journal. Sherman has documented many of the symptoms of our fragmented system, and then recommended multiple solutions whose “effort, costs, and time commitment would be significant.” The entire strategy is based on making it easier for patients to understand their out-of-pocket costs, so that it would be “easier to collect,” in the words of financial advisor quoted in the article. This advice flies in the face of the fact that millions of Americans already declare bankruptcy from overwhelming medical bills despite having insurance when they get sick.

There’s nothing in Sherman’s article addressing our nation’s unsustainable cost trends, the fact that financial barriers keep so many Americans from healthcare, or the professional burnout created by needless administrative complexities. Instead, his proposal would add even more administrative complexity and waste. As any student of Deming and Juran can tell you, complexity is the enemy of quality.

Enough, I say, and most Americans agree.

Managed care is a model that’s had its day, if there ever really was one.

“Surprise medical bills” and “balance billing” are consequences of this fragmentation. They point to the need for us to build a single national health program, insuring every American with comprehensive first-dollar coverage. With this being the insurer for every American, virtually every physician and hospital would be “in network” and the surprises and unaddressed balances would fade into the dust heap of history.

The simplicity and success of this approach has been demonstrated around the world and resonates with patients and physicians alike. Indeed, ever since 2001 there has been a net migration of American physicians into Canada. Every year since 2004 there has been a net repatriation of expat Canadian physicians. Dr. Trina Larsen Soles, president of Doctors of British Columbia, describes practice in Canada as “It’s not a big hassle. I can focus on patient issues, not administrative issues.” Compare that to Dr. John Cullen, at the time president-elect of the American Academy of Family Physicians, who described American medical practice as “An incredible bureaucratic mess to get anything done for patients.”

It is time to move away from the convolutions and contortions that define this uniquely American industry, get rid of these intermediaries, and switch to the American system with the lowest overhead, consistently high levels of popularity, and extends our life expectancy.

Let us build our solution upon traditional Medicare (Parts A and B): eliminate the copays and deductibles; add in coverage for pharmacy, optometry, dentistry, and a few other critical elements; and fully fund our national health insurance through an equitable public funding mechanism rather compound overwhelming illnesses with overwhelming financial burdens.

With these improvements, there would be no market for supplements or Advantage plans. According to dozens of economic analyses, the savings from reduced administrative overhead and more consistent pricing would mean that the vast majority of Americans would spend less on healthcare. And be put back in control of their own healthcare decisions.

https://www.physicianleaders.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

My father, my two brothers and I joined together in a traditional general practice (in the days before “family practice” was a discipline). In 1966, the implementation of Medicare and Medicaid (Medi-Cal) was a godsend. We were able to obtain more essential services, especially specialty care, for our patients, though the instability of individual insurance coverage and employer-sponsored plans remained a problem (60 million people leave their jobs each year!). Referrals of the uninsured and undocumented were often very difficult, though a few specialists did share our views on health care justice.

But then managed care entered the picture. Awful! The plans were very successful in erecting barriers to care. It was so bad that we eventually welcomed EMTALA which enabled an enforced referral by sending our patients to the emergency department of the hospital. Talk about a terrible way to practice medicine, not to mention the damage it did to the previously collegial relationships between physicians. In Orange County, even Medi-Cal was split up into multiple managed care organizations. (An example of how that worked out: There was only one authorized psychiatrist on my list who happened to be an octogenarian who had practiced in the opposite end of the county far away from my patients, but who had his license suspended because of a morals offense committed in a city park restroom. So I didn’t have any psychiatrist to whom I could refer my patients. Yet Blue Cross had the gall to send an agent to my office to admonish me for sending patients out of network, when virtually none of the specialists in my region would accept my Medi-Cal [CalOptima] patients within the network. It was managed exclusion of care.)

And Medicare? There is now a march toward private Medicare Advantage plans. It may not be obvious to those who are enrolling in these plans, but they are designed to create barriers to care – the most important being limitation of care to contracted provider networks. Most patients do not know when preferred care is being bypassed or that it is not even offered at all because of these restrictions, or maybe because physicians are simply avoiding the hassle of obtaining prior authorizations.

And those who insist on the right to enroll in private plans as a condition for enacting a Medicare for All program? They truly do not seem to know what they are wishing for. They are making a plea for the perpetuation of the evils of managed care, though the insurers have been effective in making those evils less transparent.

Ed Weisbart has it right again: Managed care is a model that’s had its day. If only the public could understand that. We would then have the political support to move forward with single payer Medicare for All – affordable health care for everyone forever.

Stay informed! Visit www.pnhp.org/qotd to sign up for daily email updates.

By Jack Meyer
Health Affairs Blog, July 24, 2019

The debate over the future of the US health care system has entered a fact-free, extremist zone that will continue to impede progress toward the critically important goals of moving to universal health coverage, improving the quality of care and patient safety, and controlling the growth of total health spending. The polarization of the health care debate will leave us in gridlock and block any bipartisan approaches to universal coverage that can be enacted and implemented.

Sabotaging The ACA

On one side of this debate, the Trump administration has been repeatedly sabotaging the ACA, while offering no constructive alternative.

Living In A Dream World

On the other side of the debate, most Democratic presidential candidates are shouting “Medicare for All” without explaining how that would work or how we would get from here to there.

A Better Approach To Achieving Universal Health Coverage

There are constructive, feasible, and affordable pathways to universal coverage that build on our mixed, public/private system.

Linda Blumberg, John Holahan, and Stephen Zuckerman of the Urban Institute have developed a plan to move toward universal coverage that allows people to keep their employer plan if they are satisfied with it.

The US needs to stop the ideological battle over the ACA and develop a realistic, affordable plan to move to universal health coverage. Instead of repealing the ACA or forcing people out of private coverage, we can construct a mixed public/private approach using large building blocks to forge a solid structure. No sabotage, no mandates, no villains, no easy sound bites. Instead, a blend of pluralistic approaches to affordable coverage using expanded public subsidies, private insurance, and sensible regulations.

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Health Affairs Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

There is absolutely no question that a well designed single payer model of reform is vastly superior from a policy perspective. It automatically includes absolutely everyone; it reduces administrative waste by hundreds of billions of dollars each year (not each decade); it improves equitable distribution of our health care resources thus improving access; it is financed equitably so that no person is exposed to financial hardship, and it uses public policies to slow future health care spending to sustainable levels. Incremental measures, such as described here, only add more layers to our highly dysfunctional health care financing, thus perpetuating inequities, inefficiencies, ineffectiveness, and ever rising health care spending. The problem is not with single payer policy, but it’s with the political path to get there, as this article implies.

It is a terrible error to automatically compromise on policy in order to clear a pathway through the politics, yet that is how it is typically done. What we should be doing instead is change the politics so that we can enact and implement the optimal policies that work best for all of us.

The first step should be to have a little more honesty in our national dialogue on reform. Instead of discussing how well selected policies work for the dysfunctional elements of the existing system, we should be discussing how well optimal policies (single payer) would benefit the patients, and then be sure that the public is educated on the differences. Difficult? Sure it is, but this multi-trillion dollar industry is being funded by us, the people, and for that level of spending we should be demanding optimal value – high quality health care for everyone.

https://www.healthaffairs.org…

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Further Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Think about these two problems society faces:

1. We have the most expensive health care system in the world yet it is failing us in preventing much avoidable suffering, financial hardship and premature death.
2. We have a political system that serves as a barrier to problem #1.

So what have we been doing? We first approach problem #2. We decide that we have to agree to compromise and then we decide what health policies can survive the compromise process.

Through the decades, we have agreed on policies that sacrifice universality, access, affordability, efficiency, effectiveness, and especially equity. Yet we have defined this as success because we were able to negotiate the politics.

We still see that today. Forget the dream world of a high performing health care system that’s affordable and takes care of everyone. Let’s spin our wheels on the real challenge – achieving political compromise – but to do that, we have to dump the beneficial policies that actually would work for all of us. In other words, we must tackle the barrier to reform – problem #2 – by sacrificing real solutions for problem #1 – our health care.

As stated above, we need more honesty in our national discourse on reform. People need to understand what really would work best for them. By placing a priority on policy, you would hope that the politics would align.

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By Sarah Miller, Sean Altekruse, Norman Johnson, and Laura R. Wherry
National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2019

Abstract

We use large-scale federal survey data linked to administrative death records to investigate the relationship between Medicaid enrollment and mortality. Our analysis compares changes in mortality for near-elderly adults in states with and without Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions. We identify adults most likely to benefit using survey information on socioeconomic and citizenship status, and public program participation. We find a 0.13 percentage point decline in annual mortality, a 9.3 percent reduction over the sample mean, associated with Medicaid expansion for this population. The effect is driven by a reduction in disease-related deaths and grows over time. We find no evidence of differential pre-treatment trends in outcomes and no effects among placebo groups.

Interpreting the Estimates

Our estimated change in mortality for our sample translates into sizeable gains in terms of the number of lives saved under Medicaid expansion. Since there are about 3.7 million individuals who meet our sample criteria living in expansion states, our results indicate that approximately 4,800 fewer deaths occurred per year among this population, or roughly 19,200 fewer deaths over the first four years alone. Or, put differently, as there are approximately 3 million individuals meeting this sample criteria in non-expansion states, failure to expand in these states likely resulted in 15,600 additional deaths over this four year period that could have been avoided if the states had opted to expand coverage.

Conclusion

There is robust evidence that Medicaid increases the use of health care, including types of care that are well-established as efficacious such as prescription drugs and screening and early detection of cancers that are responsive to treatment. Given this, it may seem obvious that Medicaid would improve objective measures of health. However, due to data constraints, this relationship has been difficult to demonstrate empirically, leading to widespread skepticism that Medicaid has any salutary effect on health whatsoever. Our paper overcomes documented data challenges by taking advantage of large- scare federal survey data that has been linked to administrative records on mortality. Using these data, we show that the Medicaid expansions substantially reduced mortality rates among those who stood to benefit the most.

https://www.nber.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

Health policy can be a matter of life or death.

The Affordable Care Act offered states the opportunity to expand their Medicaid programs that provided care to low-income families, with 100 percent federal funding for the first three years. Several states declined the offer. This NBER report shows that this decision “likely resulted in 15,600 additional deaths” over the first four years of the program. For the states that expanded their Medicaid programs, there were “roughly 19,200 fewer deaths over the first four years.”

The ubiquitous media reports over the years suggest that these decisions to reject Medicaid expansion were based on political ideology, largely without much mention made of the concerns for the health outcomes of the affected populations, except, of course, by the advocates of health care justice. The opponents of public policies for reforming health care object to the use of the term “cruel” to describe these decisions, but that does not seem to be an inappropriate term to describe politicians who use a signature on a document to commit acts of voluntary manslaughter. (Whether this use of “voluntary manslaughter” fits the legal definition seems to have little import when considering that thousands actually died unnecessarily.)

Obviously the importance of health policy decisions extend far beyond the Medicaid program. We know what policies would improve the functioning of our health care system for the benefit of all of us. Optimal policies begin with the financing infrastructure inherent in the design of the single payer model of Medicare for All. The dispute is not over optimal policy. Tragically, the dispute is over politics. Leaving the current financing system in place while merely adding a public option trades away crucial beneficial policies for mere political considerations. On the other side, repealing the Affordable Care Act while promising only a nebulous “something great” as a replacement doesn’t even make an attempt to initiate rational policy discussions.

It is about policy. We can get that right. So what do we do about the politics that is perpetuating this cruelty? If we fail in our politics we will have to put up with more suffering, hardship, and even death. Now that’s cruel.

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By Adam Gaffney, M.D., M.P.H.; Danny McCormick, M.D.; David H. Bor, M.D.; Anna Goldman, M.D.; Steffie Woolhandler, M.D., M.P.H.; David U. Himmelstein, M.D.
Annals of Internal Medicine, July 23, 2019

Abstract

Background: Persons with comprehensive health insurance use more hospital care than those who are uninsured or have high-deductible plans. Consequently, analysts generally assume that expanding coverage will increase society-wide use of inpatient services. However, a limited supply of beds might constrain this growth.

Objective: To determine how the implementations of Medicare and Medicaid (1966) and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) (2014) affected hospital use.

Design: Repeated cross-sectional study.

Setting: Nationally representative surveys.

Participants: Respondents to the National Health Interview Survey (1962 to 1970) and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2008 to 2015).

Measurements: Mean hospital discharges and days were measured, both society-wide and among subgroups defined by income, age, and health status. Changes between preexpansion and postexpansion periods were analyzed using multivariable negative binomial regression.

Results: Overall hospital discharges averaged 12.8 per 100 persons in the 3 years before implementation of Medicare and Medicaid and 12.7 per 100 persons in the 4 years after (adjusted difference, 0.2 discharges [95% CI, −0.1 to 0.4 discharges] per 100 persons; P = 0.26). Hospital days did not change in the first 2 years after implementation but increased later. Effects differed by subpopulation: Adjusted discharges increased by 2.4 (CI, 1.7 to 3.1) per 100 persons among elderly compared with nonelderly persons (P < 0.001) and also increased among those with low incomes compared with high-income populations. For younger and higher-income persons, use decreased. Similarly, after the ACA’s implementation, overall hospital use did not change: Society-wide rates of discharge were 9.4 per 100 persons before the ACA and 9.0 per 100 persons after the ACA (adjusted difference, −0.6 discharges [CI, −1.3 to 0.2 discharges] per 100 persons; P = 0.133), and hospital days were also stable. Trends differed for some subgroups, and rates decreased significantly in unadjusted (but not adjusted) analyses among persons reporting good or better health status and increased nonsignificantly among those in worse health.

Limitation: Data sources relied on participant recall, surveys excluded institutionalized persons, and follow-up after the ACA was limited.

Conclusion: Past coverage expansions were associated with little or no change in society-wide hospital use; increases in groups who gained coverage were offset by reductions among others, suggesting that bed supply limited increases in use. Reducing coverage may merely shift care toward wealthier and healthier persons. Conversely, universal coverage is unlikely to cause a surge in hospital use if growth in hospital capacity is carefully constrained.

Primary Funding Source: None.

https://annals.org…

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Medicare for All unlikely to cause surge in hospital use: Harvard study

Physicians for a National Health Program, July 22, 2019

Analysis finds no increase in hospitalizations after previous large coverage expansions; increased care for newly insured was counterbalanced by small decreases for the healthy and wealthy

As political leaders debate the merits of a future Medicare for All system in the U.S., some analysts predict that implementing universal coverage could cause a sharp, unaffordable increase in hospital use and costs, overwhelming the system. But new research by a team at Harvard Medical School and The City University of New York at Hunter College, published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine, contradicts that assumption, finding that past insurance expansions did not result in a net increase in hospital use. Instead, researchers found a redistribution of care, with increases in hospital care among those newly insured that was offset by small decreases among healthier and wealthier Americans.

The study examined changes in hospital use among those who gained coverage — as well as those whose coverage remained unchanged — after the implementation of Medicare and Medicaid in 1966 and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014. Each of those programs provided new coverage to about 10% of the U.S. population, about the same share expected to gain coverage under a Medicare for All program. The researchers analyzed large national surveys from both the Medicare/Medicaid and ACA eras, and examined hospital use before and after the coverage expansions. Hospital admissions averaged 12.8 for every 100 persons in the three years before Medicare, and 12.7 per 100 in the four years after Medicare’s implementation. Similarly, the hospital admission rate was statistically unchanged in the wake of the ACA, averaging 9.4 admissions per 100 in the six years before the ACA coverage expansion and 9.0 per 100 in the two years’ afterward.

While the study found no overall change in hospital use, the coverage expansions redistributed care. Medicare increased hospital admissions by 3.7 per 100 among the elderly, and by 0.7 per 100 among the poorest one-third of the population, i.e., the groups that gained new coverage. In contrast, hospitalizations fell slightly (about 0.5 per 100) for younger and wealthier individuals. After the ACA, admissions rose by 1.5 per 100 among sicker Americans, but fell by 0.6 per 100 among those in good health. The researchers also found a slight shift of hospital care toward the poor after the ACA.

Dr. Steffie Woolhandler, a study author and distinguished professor of public health at CUNY’s Hunter College who is also on the faculty at Harvard Medical School commented: “The good news is that even big coverage expansions didn’t increase hospitalizations overall, indicating that universal coverage won’t cause a surge in care, and that Medicare for All is affordable. On the other hand, it implies that overturning the ACA would deprive millions of needed care without saving any money.”

The researchers hypothesized that the limited supply of hospital beds constrained the overall use of hospitals when coverage was expanded. They noted that many previous studies, such as the Rand and Oregon Health Insurance Experiments, only examined the effects of greater coverage for the newly insured, not changes among those whose coverage was unchanged, nor the societal effects of expanded coverage.

“We’ve long known that when people get new or better coverage, they use more health care,” said senior author Dr. David Himmelstein, a distinguished professor of public health at CUNY’s Hunter College and lecturer in medicine at Harvard Medical School. “What we didn’t know is what happens to those who were already well-insured, and how this plays out society-wide given the limited number of hospital beds, doctors and nurses,” he stated. “Our data shows that if you sensibly control hospital growth, you can cover everybody without breaking the bank.”

Lead author Dr. Adam Gaffney, instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School and a pulmonary and critical care physician at Cambridge Health Alliance, suggested that the small reductions in hospitalizations among healthier and wealthier individuals are unlikely to be harmful. “We know that the well-insured often receive unnecessary hospitalizations,” said Dr. Gaffney. “While defibrillator implants and coronary artery stents can be lifesaving, thousands of patients each year get these and other procedures even when they offer no benefit,” he added, pointing to an Institute of Medicine study that found that nearly one-third of medical spending is wasted. “The fact that coverage expansions shift hospital care to those who need it, and reduce care for groups currently getting excessive and possibly harmful interventions, means that universal coverage could help everyone,” he stated.

Physicians for a National Health Program is a nonprofit research and education organization whose more than 23,000 members support single-payer national health insurance. PNHP had no role in funding or otherwise supporting the study described above.

https://www.eurekalert.org…

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Comment:

By Don McCanne, M.D.

It is often assumed that expanding health care coverage to the uninsured and underinsured will unleash pent-up demand for inpatient hospital services. This important study shows that two periods in our history that expanded coverage by an amount that would be comparable to implementation of a single payer Medicare for All program – Medicare and Medicaid in 1966 and the Affordable Care Act in 2014 – actually may have improved allocation of our hospital resources. There was no surge in occupation of hospital beds, but use increased for older and lower-income populations (groups noted for often having greater health care needs) while decreasing for younger and higher-income persons (generally healthier populations).

System capacity is important. Excess capacity can result in over-provision of services of little value whereas deficient capacity can impair access to essential services. Two features of the single payer model can address these problems: 1) Regional planning and separate budgeting of capital improvements can establish optimal levels of capacity, taking surge capacity into consideration, and 2) Global budgeting of hospitals, much as fire departments are budgeted, can provide assurance that adequate funds are available to meet the needs, with contingency funds for crises, while not wasting funds on excess administrative services or on unnecessary profits.

We can dismiss alarmist comments such as that of Rep. John Delaney who said that, under Medicare rates, “Every single hospital administrator said they would close.” That’s ridiculous. Under single payer Medicare for All, the money will be there; it will be collected equitably and distributed equitably, and all of us will have the health care that we need. Bringing everyone under the umbrella will not place undue stress on the system providing we choose stewards for the system who know how to size the umbrella properly.

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